Americans spent $92.9 billion at restaurants and bars in September, up 1.1% from August and 7.0% from a year earlier, according to the Census Bureau’s advance retail sales estimate released Thursday morning. The Associated Press, in a report by Christopher Rugaber carried by PBS NewsHour, described the restaurant gain as part of a retail report that came in stronger than economists had forecast. Total retail and food services sales reached $745.0 billion, up 0.8% for the month.
What the numbers say
Start with the dollars. Food services and drinking places, the Census category covering diners, bars, fast-food counters and everything in between, grew faster than retail as a whole in September: 1.1% against 0.8%. Over twelve months the gap is wider, at 7.0% for restaurants and bars versus 6.3% for all retail and food services.
Grocery stores rang up $77.2 billion, a 0.5% monthly gain and only 0.9% above a year ago. Put side by side, restaurant and bar spending has grown nearly eight times as fast as grocery spending over the past year. That is a statement about dollars, though, not about meals eaten.
Dollars are not the same as customers
Before reading this as a rush back to the counter, take the caution in the AP report. Gas stations supplied much of the strength: sales there jumped 6.4% as fuel got more expensive. Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose just 0.2%, and AP noted that much of that increase also reflected higher prices.
The Census figures are in current dollars. A breakfast plate that costs more shows up as more sales even when the number of plates is unchanged. Earlier today we covered the September price data showing menus climbing faster than grocery bills, and the two stories fit together: higher menu prices and higher sales totals can be two views of the same thing.
This release cannot split the September change into price and traffic. Census publishes dollar totals, not check counts or visits.
The cost side keeps rising
The same AP coverage points at what an operator pays. Diesel averaged $6.32 a gallon nationwide on Thursday, according to AAA, up from $3.66 a year earlier. Wholesale food prices, as measured by the Labor Department’s producer price index, rose 1.2% from August to September, the largest monthly gain since February, although they were unchanged from a year earlier. AP added that groceries could become more expensive in the coming months, since farmers also rely on diesel for most of their equipment.
Freight is the quiet line item here. Produce, dairy, coffee and paper goods all arrive on trucks, and a diesel bill that has nearly doubled in a year gets passed along somewhere. For a restaurant, a 1.1% sales gain helps only if it outruns what ingredients, fuel and labor add. Nothing in the release shows profit margins, and we will not guess at them.
The household squeeze behind the totals
Consumers are paying more for gas and groceries while paychecks lag. AP reported that inflation-adjusted average weekly earnings fell in September compared with a year earlier, the first such decline since May. September hiring slowed to 29,000 jobs, and unemployment rose to 4.2%. Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial Advisers told AP that shoppers are unhappy but keep buying: “They’re not happy, but they’re still spending.”
A meal out is one of the easier purchases to trim, and so far the Census data show people have not trimmed much. Whether that holds as prices keep rising is the open question for the colder months.
What it means for a diner regular
This release is national. It does not break out Long Island or any single town, so it says nothing direct about the North Shore. With that limit in mind, a few readings are fair:
- Treat the headline as nominal. Bigger sales totals partly reflect higher prices, so a busier-looking month on paper is not proof of a fuller dining room.
- Expect cost pressure to continue. With diesel at $6.32 and wholesale food prices up 1.2% in a month, an operator who adjusts a menu price is responding to real input costs.
- Notice the gap with grocery spending. Households are still paying for meals they do not cook, which is good news for independent places, but the margin of that good news is unknown.
What to watch next
The Census Bureau’s next retail sales report is scheduled for November 17, and advance figures like these are routinely revised. AP reported that the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is about two weeks away, with officials having penciled in at least one more rate increase this year. We will update our coverage as the October data arrives.
Sources
- U.S. Census Bureau, Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for September 2026, released October 15: census.gov (primary data)
- AP via PBS NewsHour, Christopher Rugaber, “How much longer will consumers be willing to muscle through higher prices?”: pbs.org
- AP via PBS NewsHour, Christopher Rugaber, “Wholesale inflation hits levels not seen since 2022”: pbs.org
